📋 Deal Terms Summary (click to expand)
💡 Incremental Warrant Incentives for AA+ Performance
Strategic Objective: Incentivize the publisher to spend above the baseline $2M by offering equity upside (warrants) that only unlocks for AA+ execution. Below $2M, the standard publishing deal with recoup is sufficient compensation.
Problem: Publishers often default to risk-averse marketing at launch—spending less to protect downside.
Solution: Warrants unlock only for spend above $2M (AA threshold), with a grace margin (80-100% efficiency = partial warrants) so publishers keep pushing instead of parking spend to protect efficiency.
Founder Upside: The equity you give up is dwarfed by the profits you keep + the enterprise value appreciation from revenue growth.
Baseline Deal: Publisher gets recoup + margin for standard execution ($0-$2M). Warrant Incentive: Only kicks in for AA+ spend ($2M+), rewarding aggressive scaling.
| A-Tier (Indie) | $100K–$2M spend, $5M–$50M exit |
| AA-Tier | $2M–$20M spend, $50M–$300M exit |
| AAA-Tier | $20M–$50M+ spend, $300M–$1B+ exit |
How the Incentive Loop Works
marketing plan
tactics & budget
aggressively
unlocks warrants
Profits + EV + Equity
Why This Aligns Everyone
Publisher: Gets equity upside proportional to profitable spend above $2M. No upside for baseline execution.
Founder: Keeps majority of profits + EV appreciation. Dilution cost is 4.9x outweighed by gains.
Approval Gate: Like submitting a raid strategy—publisher brings the plan, you approve tactics. They can't just spend recklessly.
1. Deal Parameters
Warrant Structure
Founder Economics
2. Publisher Performance
Warrant Unlock Progress
3. Founder Value Analysis
What founders give up vs. what they gain from publisher-driven marketing.
What Founders Give Up
What Founders Gain
Net Founder Benefit
4. What-If Analysis: Publisher Spend Levels
Pre-calculated scenarios showing outcomes at different spend levels. Use the sliders above for custom scenarios.
| Scenario | Marketing Spend | Revenue Generated | Warrants Earned | Founder Profit Share | Founder EV Gain | Net Founder Benefit |
|---|
5. Industry Marketing Budget Benchmarks
Research-validated marketing spends for PC/Console games. LTD = Lifetime to Date (cumulative); Launch = initial window only.
| Tier | Game | Publisher | Year | Spend | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | Cyberpunk 2077 | CD Projekt Red | 2020 | $163.6M | LTD |
| AAA | Star Citizen* | Cloud Imperium | 2013 | $156M+ | LTD |
| AAA | The Last of Us II | Sony/Naughty Dog | 2020 | $153M | Launch |
| AAA | Horizon Forbidden West | Sony/Guerrilla | 2022 | $150M | Launch |
| AAA | Grand Theft Auto V | Rockstar/Take-Two | 2013 | $128M+ | Launch |
| AAA | Red Dead Redemption 2 | Rockstar/Take-Two | 2018 | $100–200M | Launch |
| AAA | StarCraft II | Blizzard | 2010 | $50M+ | Launch |
| AAA | The Witcher 3 | CD Projekt Red | 2015 | $35M | Launch |
| AAA | Civilization VI | 2K/Firaxis | 2016 | $20–30M | Launch |
| AA | Titanfall 2 | EA/Respawn | 2016 | $10–15M | Launch |
| AA | Control | 505 Games/Remedy | 2019 | ~$9M | Launch |
| AA | The Witcher 2 | CD Projekt Red | 2011 | $5.4M | Launch |
| AA | Hellblade | Ninja Theory | 2017 | $2–3M | Launch |
| AA | Divinity: Original Sin 2 | Larian Studios | 2017 | ~$2M | Launch |
| A | Manor Lords | Hooded Horse | 2024 | $250–500K | Launch |
| A | Celeste | Maddy Makes Games | 2018 | ~$150K | Launch |
| A | Into the Breach | Subset Games | 2018 | ~$100K | Launch |
| A | Descenders | No More Robots | 2018 | $65K | Launch |
| A | Shovel Knight | Yacht Club Games | 2014 | $50–120K | Launch |
Sources
Research compiled via Grok and Gemini AI analysis of public financial disclosures, court documents, and industry interviews (January 2026).