Core Premise
Subscription ROAS = Trial Start Rate × Trial Conversion Rate
What You Control
- + Creative quality → Trial Start Rate
- + Targeting → User quality
- + Spend level → Signal quality
- + Campaign structure → Optimization
What Product Controls
- - FTUE flow → Trial Conversion
- - Content quality → D365 renewal
- - Pricing strategy → LTV ceiling
- - App Store rating → Organic multiplier
The Subscription Decision Tree
With front-loaded subscription LTV, your payback window is D7 (when trial converts). This changes everything.
D0
Install
→
D0-D7
Trial Period
→
D7
LTV Realized
→
D365
Renewal Bonus
Front-Loaded = Fast Feedback Loops
Ad-monetized games generate revenue from D0, but need D30-D90 to project terminal ROAS accurately. With annual subscriptions, 100% of Year 1 revenue arrives at D7 (trial conversion). This means you can iterate weekly on spend decisions—you don't need to wait months to validate.
Trial Length: 7-Day Default (Test 3-Day)
Currently using 7-day trial. Consider A/B testing 3-day trial—shorter trials can improve conversion rates by creating urgency while reducing "serial trialer" behavior. Track trial-to-paid conversion by trial length.
1
Know Your LTV Shape
Subscription LTV is binary: they convert or they don't
Current State
Front-Loaded Subscription
85% of Year 1 LTV arrives at D7 (trial conversion). Annual subscription = $69.99 paid upfront. Renewals add bonus LTV at D365.
Key Metric: Trial-to-Paid Conversion (17% current, 40% target)
Goal State
Extended via Renewal
30%+ D365 renewal rate transforms economics. LTV extends from $70 to $90+ effective. Unlocks higher CAC tolerance.
Unlock: Full Bible content = rereadability = retention
Brilliant Bible Unit Economics
Annual Price
$70
$5.83/month effective
Net Revenue
$49
After 30% platform fee
Breakeven CPA
$49
Max acquisition cost
Target CPA
<$35
For 30%+ margin
The Math: Install to Revenue
| Step | Current Rate | Target Rate | At $5 CPI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Install → Trial Start | 10% | 18% | $50 CPT (cost per trial) |
| Trial → Paid | 17% | 40% | $294 CPA |
| Overall Conversion | 1.7% | 7.2% | — |
| Target Overall | 7%+ (for $70 CPA) | $70 CPA = Profitable | |
RevenueCat Benchmark Context
Per RevenueCat's 2025 benchmarks, a 10% Trial Start Rate already places Brilliant Bible in the top 25% of subscription apps. The opportunity is Trial Conversion—hitting 40-50% would put the app in the top tier.
FTUE vs Product Quality (Nuanced View)
FTUE primarily affects Trial Start Rate—getting users to begin the trial.
Product Quality affects Trial Conversion—whether they pay after experiencing the product.
Current focus areas: (1) Landing page alignment with Fully Illustrated KJV positioning, (2) FTUE questions to identify customer type and personalize experience.
Product Quality affects Trial Conversion—whether they pay after experiencing the product.
Current focus areas: (1) Landing page alignment with Fully Illustrated KJV positioning, (2) FTUE questions to identify customer type and personalize experience.
FTUE Optimization Unlocks Everything
The Transcend FTUE analysis projects 2.3-3.6x improvement in overall conversion (2.8% → 6.5-10%) through paywall redesign alone. At 7% conversion and $5 CPI, CPA drops to $71—within striking distance of breakeven.
2
Channel Strategy
Subscription apps need different channels than ad-monetized games
Meta Advantage+ Has Recovered
Despite SKAN challenges, Meta Advantage+ delivers strong results for subscription apps when using proper event setup. Meta remains the primary scaling channel for broad-appeal apps (faith/wellness). AppLovin can deliver 1.5-2x better CPI but requires different creative formats.
Channel Unlock Matrix
| Channel | Status | Why | Unlock Criteria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta (Facebook/Instagram) | PRIMARY | Current focus, proven 130% ROAS | — |
| AppLovin | TEST | Best performer for comparable apps | Creative pipeline ready (4+/week) |
| Google App Campaigns | LOCKED | 7-42 day learning period incompatible with D7 LTV | Extended LTV via renewals (D60 signal) |
| Apple Search Ads | TEST | High intent, premium CPI | Positive Meta ROAS + ASO optimized |
| TikTok (Spark Ads) | TEST | Christian TikTok is massive; use Spark Ads | Faith micro-influencer relationships |
Current Channel Cards
Meta (Facebook/Instagram)
PRIMARY
Advantage+ campaigns for broad optimization
Current ROAS: ~130%
Risk: ROAS tanks if spend scales too fast
Constraint: Creative velocity (need more ads)
AppLovin
TEST NEXT
Best performer for comparable subscription apps
Entry: Meta stable at 130%+ ROAS
Budget: $5K/week minimum test
Requires: Video + IEC creative formats
Google App Campaigns
LOCKED
Learning period too long for D7 payback
Problem: 7-42 day optimization window
Unlock: Only after D365 renewal data proves extended LTV
TikTok Spark Ads
TEST
Boost organic creator posts, not brand ads
Strategy: Pay faith micro-influencers to post organically, then boost with ad spend
Why: Higher trust than brand-handle ads; Christian TikTok is massive
Budget: $2K/week initial test
Focus Before Expansion
Don't add channels while Meta is unstable. Master one channel first (stable ROAS, predictable scaling), then expand. Adding channels prematurely fragments budget and learning.
3
Meta Execution
Maximizing performance on your primary channel
Campaign Structure
Advantage+ Is Your Friend
For subscription apps at moderate spend, Advantage+ campaigns outperform manual targeting. Let Meta's algorithm find converters—your job is feeding it good creative.
Scaling Protocol
Inyang's Concern: "If I just turn up all the knobs, my ROAS would tank"
This is correct. Scaling requires: (1) New creative flowing in continuously, (2) Correct campaign structure, (3) Gradual budget increases (<20%/week).
| Spend Level | Budget Increase | Creative Requirement | ROAS Floor |
|---|---|---|---|
| <$15K/month | +15-20%/week max | 2-3 new creatives/week | 130% (current) |
| $15-30K/month | +10-15%/week max | 3-4 new creatives/week | 120% |
| $30-45K/month | +10%/week max | 4-5 new creatives/week | 110% (target for salary) |
Event Tracking (Critical for Optimization)
4
Creative Strategy
For religious/educational subscription apps
Creative Requirements (Subscription vs. Ad-Monetized)
Different Game: Qualify, Don't Just Attract
Ad-monetized games want maximum installs. Subscription apps want qualified users who will pay. Your creative should pre-qualify by showing the product clearly—users who don't want to pay for a Bible app should scroll past.
Customer Profiles (Target Audiences)
Different customers have different motivations. Tailor creative to speak to each profile's specific pain point.
Comprehension Seekers
HIGH INTENT
Who: People who struggle reading/understanding traditional Bible text
Pain: "I want to read the Bible but it's hard to follow"
Hook: Visual transformation (walls of text → illustrated)
Daily Readers
CORE
Who: Weekly print Bible readers wanting mobile/daily access
Pain: "I read at home but want it on-the-go"
Hook: Convenience + fresh experience
Experience Collectors
PREMIUM
Who: Bible enthusiasts who enjoy experiencing it in new ways
Pain: "I know the Bible, but want a fresh perspective"
Hook: Art/visual quality, "See it like never before"
Family Sharers
HIGH LTV
Who: Parents/grandparents wanting to share faith with family
Pain: "How do I get my kids engaged with Scripture?"
Hook: Family sharing (5 members free), visual appeal for kids
Winning Hook Patterns for Brilliant Bible
Visual Transformation
"Before: walls of text. After: every verse illustrated."
Shows the core value prop immediately
Comprehension Proof
"Finally understand Revelation" + visual
Addresses common pain point
Social Proof
"4.8 stars from 3,600 reviews"
Trust signal for subscription hesitancy
Family Value
"Share with 5 family members free"
$70/5 = $14/person reframe
Format Strategy
Video (15-30s)
60%
Show the product in action
Static/Carousel
30%
Before/after, testimonials
UGC-Style
10%
Real users, testimonials
Creative Production (Cost-Effective)
| Method | Best For | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| App Store Screenshots → Video | Screen recordings showing UX flow | Free (internal) |
| Comic Panel Animations | Highlight visual quality | $50-100/video (freelancer) |
| Billo/UGC Platforms | Testimonial-style videos | $50-150/video |
| AI Tools (Runway, Midjourney) | Motion graphics, variants | ~$30/month subscription |
Testing Protocol
5
AI Creative Workflow
Production pipeline for high-volume creative testing
AI = 50-70% Cost Reduction + Higher Velocity
For an illustrated Bible app, AI excels at generating video ad variants. Target: 4-8 new creatives per week at <$20/video (vs $500/video manual). This enables the testing velocity required for subscription app scaling.
The "Script-to-Scene" Stack
| Step | Tool | Purpose | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Scripting | Claude / ChatGPT | Generate 30s ad scripts with hooks, agitation, solution, CTA | Free / $20/mo |
| 2. Visuals | Midjourney v6 | Generate/extend comic panels to 9:16 vertical video format | $10/mo |
| 3. Animation | Runway Gen-3 / Luma | Turn static panels into "motion comics" with subtle movement | $12-15/video |
| 4. Voiceover | ElevenLabs | Deep "narrator" voice for verses, casual voice for UGC hook | $5/mo |
| 5. Assembly | CapCut | Combine assets, add karaoke-style captions (mandatory for retention) | Free |
Weekly AI Creative Workflow
Prompt Templates
Script Generation
"Write a 30s direct response ad for a visual Bible app. Hook: 'Why is [Book] so hard to understand?' Agitation: 'Walls of text...' Solution: 'Brilliant Bible illustrates every verse.' CTA: '7-day free trial.'"
Produces testable variations quickly
Visual Extension
"Biblical scene of [description], illustrated comic book style, vibrant saturated colors, dramatic lighting, vertical composition --ar 9:16 --style raw"
Consistent with app's visual style
Animation
"Camera slowly zooms in, dust particles floating in light beams, character turns head slightly, cinematic movement"
Subtle motion > aggressive animation
Voice Selection
Narrator voice for Bible verses (deep, resonant), Casual Gen-Z voice for UGC-style hook (relatable, conversational)
Match voice to content type
Religious Sensitivity Check
Always manually review AI-generated religious imagery and scripts before publishing. AI can produce theologically incorrect or culturally insensitive content. Have a team member familiar with Christian traditions review all assets.
6
Reporting & Cadence
What to track, when to escalate
Key Metrics (Subscription-Specific)
| Metric | Current | Target | Floor (Pause If Below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trial Start Rate | 10% | 18% | <8% |
| Trial Conversion Rate | 17% | 40% | <15% (product issue) |
| Overall Conversion | 1.7% | 7% | <1.5% |
| CPA (Paid Subscriber) | $294 | <$50 | >$70 (unprofitable) |
| D7 ROAS | ~24% | 100%+ | <20% |
Weekly Reporting Cadence
Daily
Spend, Installs, Trials
Control chart
Weekly
D7 ROAS, Trial Rate
Performance review
Bi-Weekly
Cohort LTV
Renewal tracking
Monthly
P&L, Runway
Business health
Escalation Triggers
Immediate Escalation (Same Day)
Trial conversion drops below 15% | D7 ROAS drops below 80% for 3+ days | Campaign paused by platform
Weekly Review Flag
D7 ROAS between 80-100% | CPI rising >20% week-over-week | Creative fatigue (CTR declining)
Scale Signal
D7 ROAS >130% for 2+ weeks | Trial conversion >25% | New creative outperforming champion
Control Chart Method
Use Control Charts to Track ROAS
Plot daily D7 ROAS on a control chart with upper/lower bounds (±2 standard deviations). Only react to points outside the bounds—daily noise is not actionable. This prevents overreacting to normal variance.
7
Profitable Growth Strategy
Working within the spend ceiling to fund product improvements
The Strategic Reality
This app has a ~$100-200/day profitable spend ceiling. That's not a bug—it's a feature to optimize around.
What the Data Shows
- • $0-200/day: ~175% ROAS (highly profitable)
- • $200-400/day: ~135% ROAS (marginal)
- • $400-600/day: ~104% ROAS (breakeven)
- • Videos perform best but cost $500+/each
The Goal
- → Maximize profit at low spend
- → Create headcount budget for product
- → Improve product → raise ceiling
- → Virtuous cycle
Channel Diversification (Same Budget, Better Returns)
Instead of pushing Meta past its efficient range, diversify into channels with different cost structures.
| Channel | Daily Budget | Expected ROAS | Why It Works |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta (Facebook/Instagram) | $70/day | ~130% | Current primary, keep in efficient range |
| Apple Search Ads | $30/day | ~135%+ | Historical data shows +3pp ROAS advantage vs Meta at comparable spend. High intent users. |
| Total | $100/day | ~132% | Diversified, both channels in efficient range |
Restart ASA at $30/day
Historical data shows ASA + Meta together outperforms Meta alone. At $100-200/day combined, running 70/30 split keeps both channels in their efficient range. ASA users are high-intent (searching "Bible app") and convert well.
Margin Improvement (No Extra Spend Required)
Web Checkout
HIGH IMPACT
Opportunity: Reduce Apple's 30% cut to ~3% (Stripe)
Impact: $70 subscription → $68 net (vs $49 via App Store)
Implementation: Landing page with web payment option, deep link to app
Breakeven CPA: $68 (vs $49 current) = 39% higher tolerance
Annual vs Monthly Pricing
OPTIMIZE
Current: $69.99/year annual subscription
Consider: Monthly option at $9.99/mo ($120/yr effective)
Tradeoff: Higher churn but higher willingness to start
Test: A/B test paywall with both options visible
Cost-Effective Creative Pipeline
Videos perform best but cost $500+. Here's how to get video-like results at 90% lower cost.
| Approach | Cost | Output | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Screen Recording + Captions | $0 | 4-8/week | Product demos, UX walkthroughs |
| Comic Panel Slideshow | $0 | 4-8/week | Showcase art quality, Bible stories |
| AI Motion (Runway) | $12-15/video | 2-4/week | Premium "motion comic" feel |
| UGC (Billo) | $50-100/video | 1-2/week | Testimonials, social proof |
The 80/20 Creative Rule
80% of creative testing should be zero-cost (screen recordings, slideshows). Save 20% budget for higher-production UGC when you've validated a hook. Don't spend $500 on a video concept that hasn't proven itself in a $0 format first.
Monthly P&L Target (Profitable Path)
Monthly Spend
$3K
$100/day average
Expected Revenue
$4K
At 132% ROAS
Gross Profit
$1K
After ad spend
Annual Runway
$12K
For product/headcount
The Virtuous Cycle
Step 1: Stay profitable at $100/day → Generate $12K/year surplus
Step 2: Invest in product (FTUE, content) → Improve trial conversion
Step 3: Higher conversion → Higher spend ceiling
Step 4: Scale spend profitably → Larger surplus → Repeat
Step 2: Invest in product (FTUE, content) → Improve trial conversion
Step 3: Higher conversion → Higher spend ceiling
Step 4: Scale spend profitably → Larger surplus → Repeat
Revenue Without Ad Spend
These tactics generate revenue from your existing user base — no extra ad budget required.
Lifetime Offer
$149-199
One-time "Lifetime Access" on web checkout. Pulls cash forward for immediate runway.
Win-Back Emails
5-10%
80% of trial users don't convert. A simple 3-email sequence with a discount can recover 5-10% of them.
Creative Remix
$0 Cost
Take your top video. Cut the first 3 seconds. Add 3 different hooks (Problem, Social Proof, Benefit). Test all 3.
The 3-Hook Rule
Every winning video can become 3 variations at zero production cost. Cut the intro and test: (1) Problem Hook — "Struggling to stay consistent with Bible study?" (2) Social Proof Hook — "Join 50,000+ believers..." (3) Benefit Hook — "5 minutes a day to deeper faith." These variations often outperform the original.